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Monday, 1 June 2009

Little Notes On The Climate

A few suprising notes on the climate....lalalalala

1-We know astonishingly little about every aspect of the environment,from it's past history to it's present state,to how to preserve and protect it.In most debates,all sides overstate the extent of existing knowledge and it's degree of certainty.

2-Asmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing,and human activity is the PROBABLE cause.

3-We are in the midst of a natural warming trend that began about 1850,as we emerged from a four-houndred-year cold spell known as the 'Little Ice Age".

4-Nobody knows how much of the present warming trend might be a natural phenomenon.

5-Nobody knows how much of the present warming trend might be man-made.

6-Nobody knows how much warming will occur in the next century.The computer models vary by 400 percent,evident proof that nobody knows.People are just guessing.

7-Before making expensive policy decisions on the basis of climate models,the author thinks it is reasonable that these climate models accurately predict the future for a period of ten years.20 should be better.

8-The author think for anyone to believe in impending resource scarcity,after two hundred years of false alarm,is kind of weird.

9-There are many reasons to shift away from fossil fuels,and hopefully mankind will do so in the next century without legislation,financial incentives,carbon-conservation programs,or the interminable yammerings of fearmongers.So far as the author knows,nobody had to ban horse transport in the early twentieth century.

10-The current near-hysterical preoccupation with safety is at best a wasteof resources and a crimp on the human spirit,and at worst an invitation to totalitarianism.Public education is desperately needed.

11-The author conclude that most environmental 'principles'(such as sustainable development or the precautionary principle)have the effect of preserving the economic advantages of the West and thus constitute modern imperialism towards the developing world.It is a nice way of saying,'We got ours and we don't want you to get yours,because you'll cause too much pollution.'

12-In the thirty-something odd years since the environmental movement came into existence,science has undergone a major revolution.The revolution has brought new understanding of nonlinear dynamics,complex systems,chaos theory,catastrophe theory.It has tranformed the way we think about science.Yet these no-longer-new ideas have hardly penetrated the thinking of environmental activists,which seems oddly fixed in the concepts and rhetoric of the 1970's.

13-Mankind haven't the foggiest notion how to preserve what we term 'wilderness',and we had better study it in the field and learn how to do so.

14-Mankind needs a new environmental movement,with new goals and new organizations.We need more people working in the field,in the actual environment,and fewer people behind computer screens.We need more scientists and many fewer lawyers.

15-Mankind cannot hope to manage a complex system such as the environment through litigation.We can only change it's state temporarily--usually by preventing something--with eventual results that we cannot predict and ultimately cannot control.

16-Everybody has an agenda.Except me,well,I guess that is a lie........

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